WWF: Klimatické změny mohou začít být nebezpečné už před rokem 2026, varuje WWF

A new study commissioned by WWF shows that dangerous levels of climate change could be reached in just over 20 years time.

The review of global climate simulations suggests that if nothing is done, the earth will have warmed by 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) above pre-industrial levels (c. 1750) by some time between 2026 and 2060. In the Arctic this could lead to a loss of summer sea ice, species, and some types of tundra vegetation as well as to a fundamental change in the ways of life of Inuit and other arctic residents.

The WWF study — Arctic Climate Change with a 2 degree C Global Warming" by Dr. Mark New of Oxford University —says the models show that, if the rest of the planet warms by an average of 2 degrees C, the Arctic will warm by up to three times that amount (3.2 to 6.6 degrees C depending on the model).

According to Dr. New, "A very robust result from global climate models is that warming due to greenhouse gases will reduce the amount of snow and ice cover in the Arctic, which will in turn produce an additional warming as more solar radiation is absorbed by the ground and the ocean."

Ice and snow reflect more solar radiation back to space than unfrozen surfaces.

Dr. New’s research is one of four contributing papers to the WWF report — 2° Is Too Much!: Evidence and Implications of Dangerous Climate Change in the Arctic" — to be presented at the February conference on avoiding dangerous climate change, organized by the British government in Exeter, south-west England.

Arctic ecosystems and residents are in the frontline when it comes to impacts of climate change.

"Global warming threatens to wreak havoc on the traditional ways of life of Inuit, putting an end to our hunting and food sharing culture," said Sheila Watt-Cloutier, elected chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference (ICC), another contributor to the WWF report.

The WWF report finds that so-called summer sea ice is melting at a rate of 9.6 per cent per decade. If this continues for more than a few decades, the study warns, this perennial ice will disappear entirely by the end of the century. This would mean that polar bears and some ice-dwelling seals would die out, threatening the food security of the indigenous communities who hunt them.

Another one of the papers shows that boreal forests will spread north and overwhelm up to 60 per cent of dwarf shrub tundra, a critical habitat for birds like ravens, snow buntings, falcons, loons, sandpipers, and terns. Migratory birds will lose a vital breeding ground in the Arctic, affecting biodiversity around the globe.

"If we don't act immediately the arctic will soon become unrecognizable," said Tonje Folkestad, climate change officer with WWF’s International Arctic Programme. "Polar bears will be consigned to history, something that our grandchildren can only read about in books."

WWF is calling on participants at the climate change conference in Exeter to give a clear message to the G8 governments meeting in the UK later this year.

"If we are to ensure that unique ecosystems like the Arctic are not lost, the G8 meeting must take drastic action to reduce climate change," said Dr Catarina Cardoso, WWF- UK programme leader on sustainable energy. "This must include a commitment to keeping global average temperature below an average of 2 degrees C and to switching to efficient and renewable energy."

According to WWF, renewable energy technologies such as wind, biomass, geothermal, and solar electricity, are not only available but in many cases would save consumers money. Renewable energy coupled with energy conservation measures are the key to reducing CO2 emissions, the main greenhouse gas.

Notes:
• The Inuit Circumpolar Conference represents Inuit people living in four countries: Greenland, Canada, Alaska/USA and Chukotka/The Russian Federation.